High ROI: Solar Power Project- Demand, Deficit and Opportunity

In the heart of rural Satkhira, 12-year-old Ayesha now studies under the glow of a solar lamp, her family’s first reliable light source.

Just a year ago, her evenings were shrouded in kerosene smoke, a reality for 42% of Bangladesh’s rural households still grappling with energy poverty.

Yet, change is blowing in like the coastal winds of Cox’s Bazar. Bangladesh, a nation of 170 million, is scripting a green revolution, swapping fossil-fuel dependency for solar panels, wind turbines, and biogas plants.

With 82% of its electricity still tied to dwindling gas and coal reserves, the country faces a race against time—and climate change.

But hope flickers 6 million solar home systems light up villages, wind farms rise along the Bay of Bengal, and farmers trade diesel pumps for sun-powered irrigation.

This isn’t just about watts and grids; it’s about mothers like Ayesha’s, who no longer fear toxic fumes, and factories in Dhaka slashing costs with rooftop solar.

For investors, it’s a $1.2 billion opportunity a chance to light up lives and portfolios.

Bangladesh’s Electricity Scenario (2024–2025)

Category	Details
Total Installed Capacity	~30,738 MW (including off-grid & captive)
On-grid Capacity	~27,515 MW
Fuel Mix (on-grid)	Gas: ~44% (~12,200 MW) Coal: ~24% (~6,600 MW) HFO: ~23% (~6,400 MW) Hydro: ~0.8% (~230 MW) Solar: ~1.9% (~530 MW) Wind: ~0.2% (~60 MW) Imports: ~4.2% (~1,160 MW)
Peak Demand (2024)	~16,477 MW (recorded)
Forecast Peak Demand (2025)	~18,000 MW (summer projection)
Maximum Generation (2024)	~16,477 MW (April 2024, BPDB data)
Estimated Shortfall (2024)	~1,323 MW (difference between demand and supply)
Forecast Shortfall (2025)	~740 MW (assuming 17,260 MW supply vs. 18,000 MW demand)
Practical Reserve Margin	Low (due to fuel shortages and idle plants)
Nominal Reserve Margin	~86% (Installed capacity vs. peak demand)
Load Shedding Situation	Ongoing in summer months; may worsen to 2,000–3,000 MW shortfall

Ref: Annual Report:  Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)

Installed Generation Capacity and Fuel Mix

Bangladesh’s total installed power generation capacity has surged in recent years. As of mid‑2024, on‑grid capacity was about 27,515 MW.

Including captive and off‑grid plants (diesel generators, etc.), total capacity reached roughly 30,738 MW by May 2024.

By fuel type, the grid-connected mix is overwhelmingly fossil‑based: roughly 12,200 MW (≈44%) from natural gas, 6,600 MW (≈24%) from coal, and 6,400 MW (≈23%) from heavy fuel oil (HFO).

Renewables are only a few percent: hydropower ≈0.8% (~230 MW), solar ≈1.9% (~530 MW), and wind ≈0.2% (~60 MW). About 4.2% (≈1,160 MW) of capacity comes from imported power (mostly hydro from India).

In summary, Bangladesh’s generation fleet is roughly 57% gas/coal, 23% oil, and only ~2% low‑carbon (solar/wind).

• Capacity (mid-2024): ~27,500 MW (grid); ~30,738 MW including off-grid.

• Fuel breakdown: Gas ~44%, Coal ~24%, HFO ~23%, Hydro ~0.8%, Solar ~1.9%, Wind ~0.2%, Imports ~4.2%.

Despite this large capacity, BPDB notes that “generation still falls short” of demand– indicating under-utilization of plants due to fuel/operational constraints. (For example, BPDB reports peak generation 16,477 MW in April 2024, well below installed capacity.)

National Electricity Demand

Peak electricity demand is far below installed capacity. Government figures show a peak load of about 16,477 MW (as of mid-2024).

Demand varies seasonally and daily: winter “lean” demand can drop below 7,000 MW, while summer peaks are much higher. Recent forecasts predict summer peak demand rising to ~18,000 MW by 2025.

For context, the Power Division reported March 2025 demand ≈16,000 MW and April 2025 ≈18,000 MW.

(In 2024 the highest projected demand was ≈17,800 MW, though actual peaks may have been slightly lower.)

• Peak demand (2024): ~16.5 GW (BPDB, mid-2024).

• Forecasted peak (2025 summer): ~18.0 GW.

These figures imply that even the current demand (≈16–18 GW) is well within the theoretical capacity, but the shortfall comes from fuel and dispatch issues.

Deficit or Surplus (Reserve Margin)

On paper, Bangladesh has excess capacity: installed capacity (~30.7 GW) exceeds peak demand (~16.5 GW) by about 14.3 GW, a reserve margin of ~86%. (Using only on-grid capacity yields a reserve margin ≈66%.)

In practice, however, many plants sit idle or run below capacity due to fuel shortages and maintenance issues. Thus, the country still experiences power deficits and load shedding. For example:

• Summer 2024: Peak demand ~17,800 MW vs. maximum generation ~16,477 MW– a gap of ≈1,323 MW.

• Forecast summer 2025: Demand ~18,000 MW vs. target generation ~17,260 MW– implying ~740 MW shortfall.

Energy analysts warn that if fuel imports or payments falter, shortages could reach 2,000–3,000 MW (causing several hours of daily outages). In short, despite significant installed capacity, Bangladesh’s grid often cannot supply peak demand, resulting in a net deficit on the order of a few hundred to over a thousand MW in summer periods. The overcapacity also creates a heavy subsidy burden (capacity payments to idle plants).

 Sources: Official and expert reports and news (Bangladesh Power Dev. Board data, CPD analysis, daily news outlets)
1.lightcastlepartners.com
2.practiceguides.chambers.com
3. cpd.org.bd
4. thedailystar.neten.
5. prothomalo.com.
These provide the latest (2024–2025) capacity, demand and deficit figures.

Bangladesh’s Solar Energy: Current Status and Future Potential

As of 2021 Bangladesh had about 723 MW of renewable capacity (≈489 MW from solar PV).

By 2024 renewables reached ~1.18 GW (solar ≈80%) of the 22.2 GW total grid capacity.
In other words, solar is roughly 950 MW today, a modest ~4–5% of generation capacity.

Solar installations include large ground-mounted parks and distributed rooftop systems (e.g. school rooftops, solar streetlights).

The government has set ambitious growth targets: for example, to achieve ~4,100 MW of renewables by 2030 (about 2,277 MW from solar) thedailystar.net, corresponding to roughly 15% renewables in the mix by 2030 trade.gov.

These goals reflect Bangladesh’s large solar potential but expanding deployment faces challenges. Land is scarce in this densely populated country, grid infrastructure can struggle to absorb intermittent solar, and policy/financing hurdles remain trade.gov.

To overcome these barriers, authorities are promoting net-metered rooftop programs and large-scale solar parks, alongside supportive policies and international financing, to boost future solar growth trade.govthedailystar.net.

Category	Data / Value	Source
Total Grid Capacity (2024)	~22,200 MW	BPDB / SREDA
Total Renewable Energy Capacity	~1,180 MW (≈5.3% of total)	SREDA (ndre.sreda.gov.bd)
Current Solar Power Capacity	~950 MW (≈80% of renewables)	Heliyon / SREDA
• Utility-scale Solar	Majority (~700+ MW)	SREDA / BPDB
• Rooftop Solar	~250 MW (including net-metered systems)	SREDA / The Daily Star
Net Metered Installations	~2,476 systems, ~112 MW	SREDA
Government Target (2030)	4,100 MW renewables (2,277 MW solar)	Power Division / RE Master Plan
Long-Term Goal	40% renewables by 2041; 100% by 2050	RE Master Plan 2022
Solar Potential (Estimated)	30,000–50,000 MW (utility + rooftop + floating)	BPDB / Academic studies
Key Barriers	Land scarcity, grid constraints, high equipment cost	Heliyon article (PMC10034456)
Strategies in Use	Rooftop solar, net-metering, solar parks, agrivoltaics	SREDA / RE Master Plan

Sources: Official reports and studies (SREDA, BPDB, Heliyon) of Bangladesh’s power sector

Local Demand & Community Initiatives

Bangladesh’s renewable outreach relies heavily on grassroots solar. The flagship Solar Home System (SHS) program has supplied electricity to over 6.0 million off-grid homes (≈262.75 MW)

Similarly, roughly 296,000 solar-powered streetlights (~16.70 MW) light up villages.

Community demand-driven projects include ~1,304 net-metered rooftop PV installations (23.17 MW) and about 2,102 solar irrigation pumps (44.53 MW) for farmers.

A few dozen off-grid mini-grids (27 systems, 5.66 MW) also serve remote clusterspmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov. Collectively, these initiatives power millions of rural households, replacing kerosene and boosting local livelihoods

Project Overview: 200MW Solar Power Plant by Teesta Solar Limited (Beximco Group), Gaibandha, Bangladesh